The diplomatic dance around this month’s Belt-Road Forum in Beijing telegraphed the concerns Asian countries have about the Belt-Road project.

Interpreting the actions of countries is more art than science. John Locke, the philosopher, said, “I have always thought the actions of men the best interpreters of their thoughts.” For Locke, actions reveal thoughts better than words. What else reveals true intention other than sub-conscious somatic gristle? At an international level too, one sees a nation’s thoughts and intentions by observing actions – hesitations and all.

India’s actions didn’t require deep fathoming, though. India failed to attend China’s Belt-Road fest and posted a scolding note (worth a read) outlining their reasons for absence:

“We are of firm belief that connectivity initiatives must be based on universally recognized international norms, good governance, rule of law, openness, transparency and equality.”

Indicating that India thinks the Belt-Road lacks all of the above. More to the point, India and China share ongoing border disputes in the region of Jammu and Kashmir on the west border of Tibet and Xinjiang; and in Arunachal, bordering with the south of Tibet. What makes the Belt-Road particularly sensitive is that the flagship China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project runs directly through Jammu and Kashmir towards the Pakistani coast. Its final stop, the Gwadar deep sea port, is another flagship of the Belt-Road.

For India, any direct funding for the Belt-Road project would be a concession towards their claim over the disputed region. It would be like a neighbour building a road through your back garden and asking if you want to come to the fundraising party.

Further, the Belt-Road project pushes Chinese interests into India’s sphere of influence, in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. They’re in their yard. Sri Lanka is badly in debt to the Chinese. CMPort China took an 80% stake in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port contract for US$1.2 billion, as Sri Lanka tried to pay down the debt. Resentment boiled over into protests in January at the prospect of an industrial estate developed by Chinese investors. Such debtor dynamics so close to home furthers Indian scepticism.

Singapore’s thoughts were telegraphed clearly, though not as loud. Singapore attended, but was seen as being less supportive as they requested a formal invite rather than announcing their leaders would attend. Whilst other regions sent leaders and heads of state, Singapore was represented by National Development minister Lawrence Wong. Singapore’s reluctance is explained by territorial disputes in the South China Sea – stoked by China’s land reclamation efforts.

South Korea was a last-minute invite. South Korea was reportedly still without an invitation until the Thursday before, when President Xi Jinping invited President Moon Jae-in by phone call. Tensions are fraught over South Korea’s installation of the US-run Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-missile system to defend against potential North Korean aggression. China suspect THAAD is an underhand way for the US to use the long-range technology for spying activities.

So what would John Locke make of these absences and hesitations? Whilst nations (aside perhaps India) speak positively of the Belt-Road, their hesitations and last-minute attendances point to a shared thought among the international community.

What becomes evident when looking at the nature of the regional disputes is that they do not stem from difference in political outlook, culture, religion, or human rights-based protest. They are geographical disputes.

They are territorial disputes – in India and the South China Sea, and disagreements as to what South Korea can do within its own borders.

It is exactly this type of suspicion which goes to the heart of the criticism of the Belt-Road project. That it’s really a project to enhance China’s political and soft power in Asia – hard to deny when Belt-Road projects carry the same expansionist whiff as the regional disputes which cause nations to hesitate in the first place.