Scotland voted "no" to independence in last week's referendum. In the event, the referendum was split 55%-45% of voters in favour of remaining in the union. This was a much wider 10% point margin to stay in the union than polls had suggested in recent weeks, a result that may in part have reflected last minute promises of accelerated devolution to Scotland. Turnout was 84.6% (after 97% registered to vote).

Despite Scotland deciding to remain part of the 307-year old union, the UK is likely to be a very different place after this referendum. Promises of accelerated devolution made to Scotland in the last weeks of the campaign raised questions over the governance of the rest of the UK.

UK Prime Minister David Cameron has announced a fundamental constitutional review to deliver accelerated Scottish devolution alongside changes for Wales, Northern Ireland and England. We look at the immediate ramifications of the referendum, including the financial market reaction, the constitutional questions and potential political consequences this might prompt. We also look at the broader global perspective. While Scotland voted against independence, the unexpected closeness of the polls in the run up to the referendum and the growing autonomy of UK regions has wider global implications, particularly for the Eurozone.

The immediate market reaction

We recently published "Scottish referendum: the potential cost of independence" where we undertook a detailed assessment of what independence might mean for the UK economy and financial market reaction. We forecast sterling to weaken, particularly against the US dollar, equities to soften, particularly those stocks with large cross-border operations, and short-end yields to slip. In the event, early September's narrow lead for the "Yes" camp in the polls saw markets assign an increased probability to independence, in turn prompting market moves that echoed our expectations.

Although markets had pared back these expectations in recent days, the results have seen these trades unwind further. Sterling was up around ½% more again on September 19 morning against both the US dollar and the euro; domestic equities have risen with the FTSE 250 up 1¼%, undoing some of its underperformance of recent weeks. Short-term yields have also risen with both two-year and five-year yields 4bp higher at the time of writing as market focus returns to the expected start of a tightening cycle from the Bank of England next year.

However, we argue that markets will not simply resume their pre-referendum levels. The last two weeks has seen the UK rush towards fundamental constitutional change. The uncertainty this will promote, alongside the political ramifications are likely to leave their mark on the economic and financial landscape.

Constitutional change?

While the UK has avoided a historic rendering of the union, the referendum campaign has led to a drifting of constituent nations. In the febrile environment that engulfed Westminster as polls suggested a "Yes" vote, former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown unveiled a cross-party promise to fast-track a timetable for "nothing less than a modern form of Scottish Home Rule".

What this will actually entail is yet to be decided. Cameron last week promised a blueprint for November and draft legislation for January. This appears to be the form of devolution that Westminster was so keen to avoid offering at the start of the referendum process. With legislation already in place to cede more fiscal responsibility to the Scottish Parliament in 2016, Scotland looks set to gain unprecedented fiscal autonomy for any region of a wider political union.

Yet this autonomy for Scotland has had wider ramifications for the UK. Today's promise of a broad consultation of the UK's constitutional framework to be delivered for the start of the next parliament looks ambitious. This is a very fast moving and dynamic situation and we know little about where this process may lead. However, it would appear to push the UK closer towards a federalist model.

The shifting political tide

Despite avoiding a break-up, the referendum looks likely to have major political ramifications. Neither the Conservative, nor Labour Parties covered themselves in glory during this campaign. Yet repercussions about the referendum look set to be overshadowed by the new dynamic of a constitutional review ahead of the general election on May 7 2015.

The accelerated devolution in Scotland always looked likely to see a surge in "devolutionist" sentiment over the rest of the UK with the UK Independence Party (UKIP) set to benefit from any such groundswell. However, Westminster's announcements last week should be seen as an attempt to meet this shifting public sentiment and re-engage marginalized voters. The upcoming party conferences (Labour, Conservative then Lib Dem) will take on much more significance. Political polls will be watched closely - not least as incumbent governments tend to outperform in the opinion polls in the run up to a general election.

These uncharacteristically fast-moving developments for constitutional change are potentially far-reaching, but at this stage highly uncertain. But from a financial market perspective, these political events are likely to take on more significance given the prospect of a UK-wide referendum during the next parliament (2017) on whether the UK should remain a part of the EU. Markets have seen how such referenda can be as driven by populism and not simple economic rational. Accordingly, in the wake of Scotland's vote, financial agents are likely to be much more wary of the risks of a UK fracture with the EU if a referendum is set in motion in the next parliament.

The cost of separation part 2?

So while the UK stands on the brink of a historic debate about its constitution, we declare a more parochial interest for the potential economic and financial impact of heightened political uncertainty. Our immediate concern, is that markets are likely to focus more on the possibility of an EU referendum and to assign a higher probability of a Brexit (UK exit from the EU) than would have been the case before the Scottish referendum.

Such a focus can have immediate consequences. Businesses, particularly those overseas, may be less likely to undertake major investment in the UK in the face of this perceived higher uncertainty. This risks lowering business and foreign direct investment growth rates now and more so should a referendum be announced after next May's elections. We consider downside risks to the outlook for business investment next year to have risen.

We also forecast this to weigh on sterling, both reflecting the risks of a softer growth profile and concerns about weaker foreign direct investment inflows. Accordingly, while we still expect sterling to rally on the back of today's "No" vote, the seeds of future depreciation may already have been sewn.

It also seems likely that UK financial market volatility will be relatively higher over the coming months and we specifically expect to see a more direct impact of changes in political opinion polls on UK financial markets in the run up to May's election.

Risks of secession elsewhere in the EU: low

Could the dynamics set by Scotland open a Pandora's box in other regions of the EU? This is unlikely.

Separatist movements in Northern Italy and in Dutch speaking Belgium are benefiting from a fresh political momentum now that the taboo has been breached. At the same time, the democratic quality of the referendum and its result may question the credibility of secessionist calls.

In our view, full independence appears as a very remote possibility in other regions of the EU, as long as devolution and federalism are open options.

David Page and Eric Chaney are from Research & Investment Strategy at AXA IM